The problem: A raw momentum score of +5 means very different things when markets are calm versus when they are in panic mode. During a VIX spike, even strong-looking trends can reverse violently.
The solution: VAMS takes the raw momentum score and divides it by a volatility normalizer. When realized volatility is at a normal 15%, VAMS roughly equals the raw score. But when vol doubles to 30% (fear spike), VAMS automatically halves the signal — telling you the momentum is less trustworthy. This acts as a built-in risk governor.
Position tiers combine the VAMS score with regime alignment (which assets the current macro regime favours or warns against) to give you a clear sizing recommendation:
| # | Ticker | Name | Score | Signal | 1M% | 3M% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IWM | Russell 2000 | +7 |
🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +3.8% | +1.6% |
| 2 | XLU | Utilities | +7 |
🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +2.8% | +13.1% |
| 3 | XLI | Industrials | +7 |
🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +1.9% | +7.8% |
| 4 | XLB | Materials | +7 |
🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +4.1% | +9.3% |
| 5 | XLRE | Real Estate | +7 |
🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +1.4% | +6.4% |
| 6 | EFA | Developed Markets | +7 |
🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +3.0% | +4.1% |
| 7 | EEM | Emerging Markets | +7 |
🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +2.5% | +6.0% |
| 8 | EWJ | Japan | +7 |
🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +2.9% | +6.5% |
| 9 | EWZ | Brazil | +7 |
🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +7.8% | +23.3% |
| 10 | VGK | Europe | +7 |
🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +3.1% | +2.3% |
| # | Ticker | Name | Score | Signal | 1M% | 3M% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FXY | Japanese Yen | -5 |
🔴 BEAR | -0.1% | -1.4% |
| 2 | INDA | India | -5 |
🔴 BEAR | -0.4% | -8.7% |
| 3 | FXI | China | -3 |
🔴 BEAR | -0.3% | -7.9% |
| 4 | WEAT | Wheat | -1 |
🟡 WEAK BEAR | -3.7% | +8.1% |
| 5 | XLC | Communication Svcs | -1 |
🟡 WEAK BEAR | -2.0% | -2.4% |
| 6 | CPER | Copper | +1 |
🔵 WEAK BULL | -2.5% | -1.3% |
| 7 | SLV | Silver | +1 |
🔵 WEAK BULL | -12.2% | -1.9% |
| 8 | TLT | 20Y Treasury | +1 |
🔵 WEAK BULL | -0.1% | +0.4% |
| 9 | XLV | Healthcare | +1 |
🔵 WEAK BULL | -1.9% | -5.2% |
| 10 | XLF | Financials | +1 |
🔵 WEAK BULL | +3.9% | -7.7% |
| # | Ticker | Name | Raw Score | VAMS | Vol% | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SHY | 1-3Y Treasury | +7 |
+7.0 |
2.1% | NO POSITION |
| 2 | HYG | High Yield Corp | +7 |
+7.0 |
7.7% | MAX POSITION |
| 3 | LQD | Inv Grade Corp | +7 |
+7.0 |
8.5% | MAX POSITION |
| 4 | EMB | EM Bonds | +7 |
+7.0 |
11.7% | HALF POSITION |
| 5 | DBA | Agriculture | +5 |
+7.0 |
9.1% | HALF POSITION |
| 6 | FXE | Euro | +7 |
+7.0 |
8.2% | MAX POSITION |
| 7 | CEW | EM Currencies | +7 |
+7.0 |
9.8% | MAX POSITION |
| 8 | FXA | Australian Dollar | +5 |
+6.2 |
12.1% | MAX POSITION |
| 9 | IEF | 7-10Y Treasury | +3 |
+6.0 |
6.6% | NO POSITION |
| 10 | XLU | Utilities | +7 |
+5.8 |
18.1% | NO POSITION |
| # | Ticker | Name | Raw Score | VAMS | Vol% | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FXY | Japanese Yen | -5 |
-7.0 |
8.3% | AVOID / SHORT |
| 2 | INDA | India | -5 |
-2.6 |
28.6% | AVOID / SHORT |
| 3 | FXI | China | -3 |
-1.9 |
23.6% | NO POSITION |
| 4 | XLC | Communication Svcs | -1 |
-0.8 |
19.5% | NO POSITION |
| 5 | WEAT | Wheat | -1 |
-0.6 |
24.7% | NO POSITION |
| 6 | SLV | Silver | +1 |
+0.3 |
58.6% | HALF POSITION |
| 7 | CPER | Copper | +1 |
+0.4 |
34.0% | HALF POSITION |
| 8 | GDX | Gold Miners | +3 |
+0.7 |
61.1% | HALF POSITION |
| 9 | XLF | Financials | +1 |
+0.8 |
18.3% | HALF POSITION |
| 10 | XLV | Healthcare | +1 |
+0.9 |
17.0% | HALF POSITION |
Compact view of raw score, realized volatility, VAMS score, and position tier for the top 20 assets ranked by VAMS.
| Ticker | Name | Raw Score | Realized Vol | VAMS Score | Position Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHY | 1-3Y Treasury | +7 | 2.1% | +7.0 | NO POSITION |
| HYG | High Yield Corp | +7 | 7.7% | +7.0 | MAX POSITION |
| LQD | Inv Grade Corp | +7 | 8.5% | +7.0 | MAX POSITION |
| EMB | EM Bonds | +7 | 11.7% | +7.0 | HALF POSITION |
| DBA | Agriculture | +5 | 9.1% | +7.0 | HALF POSITION |
| FXE | Euro | +7 | 8.2% | +7.0 | MAX POSITION |
| CEW | EM Currencies | +7 | 9.8% | +7.0 | MAX POSITION |
| FXA | Australian Dollar | +5 | 12.1% | +6.2 | MAX POSITION |
| IEF | 7-10Y Treasury | +3 | 6.6% | +6.0 | NO POSITION |
| XLU | Utilities | +7 | 18.1% | +5.8 | NO POSITION |
| XLRE | Real Estate | +7 | 18.1% | +5.8 | HALF POSITION |
| UUP | USD Index | +3 | 8.0% | +5.6 | NO POSITION |
| XLB | Materials | +7 | 21.8% | +4.8 | HALF POSITION |
| IWM | Russell 2000 | +7 | 25.7% | +4.1 | MAX POSITION |
| XLI | Industrials | +7 | 25.9% | +4.1 | HALF POSITION |
| DIA | Dow Jones | +5 | 19.2% | +3.9 | MAX POSITION |
| SPY | S&P 500 | +5 | 20.4% | +3.7 | MAX POSITION |
| EFA | Developed Markets | +7 | 28.4% | +3.7 | MAX POSITION |
| VGK | Europe | +7 | 28.1% | +3.7 | MAX POSITION |
| EWJ | Japan | +7 | 33.1% | +3.2 | MAX POSITION |
| Asset | Name | Raw Score | VAMS | Vol% | Position | Signal | 1W% | 1M% | 3M% | 12M% | vs 52W High | 20D | 50D | 200D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | Russell 2000 | +7 |
+4.1 |
25.7% | MAX POSITION | 🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +4.2% | +3.8% | +1.6% | +51.5% | -2.7% | ● | ● | ● |
| DIA | Dow Jones | +5 |
+3.9 |
19.2% | MAX POSITION | 🟢 BULL | +3.6% | +1.7% | -1.8% | +30.0% | -3.7% | ● | ● | ● |
| SPY | S&P 500 | +5 |
+3.7 |
20.4% | MAX POSITION | 🟢 BULL | +3.7% | +0.8% | -1.1% | +38.5% | -2.0% | ● | ● | ● |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | +5 |
+3.1 |
24.4% | MAX POSITION | 🟢 BULL | +4.3% | +0.5% | -1.5% | +47.4% | -3.8% | ● | ● | ● |
| Asset | Name | Raw Score | VAMS | Vol% | Position | Signal | 1W% | 1M% | 3M% | 12M% | vs 52W High | 20D | 50D | 200D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLU | Utilities | +7 |
+5.8 |
18.1% | NO POSITION | 🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +1.8% | +2.8% | +13.1% | +32.7% | -0.5% | ● | ● | ● |
| XLRE | Real Estate | +7 |
+5.8 |
18.1% | HALF POSITION | 🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +2.7% | +1.4% | +6.4% | +19.2% | -2.1% | ● | ● | ● |
| XLB | Materials | +7 |
+4.8 |
21.8% | HALF POSITION | 🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +2.5% | +4.1% | +9.3% | +41.9% | -3.2% | ● | ● | ● |
| XLI | Industrials | +7 |
+4.1 |
25.9% | HALF POSITION | 🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +5.1% | +1.9% | +7.8% | +49.9% | -3.5% | ● | ● | ● |
| XLE | Energy | +5 |
+3.0 |
25.2% | HALF POSITION | 🟢 BULL | -3.2% | +1.3% | +24.0% | +54.8% | -8.4% | ● | ● | ● |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | +3 |
+2.9 |
15.4% | NO POSITION | 🟢 BULL | +1.9% | -0.8% | +7.0% | +12.3% | -6.8% | ● | ● | ● |
| XLK | Technology | +3 |
+1.6 |
28.9% | HALF POSITION | 🟢 BULL | +4.5% | +1.3% | -1.4% | +59.0% | -6.3% | ● | ● | ● |
| XLV | Healthcare | +1 |
+0.9 |
17.0% | HALF POSITION | 🔵 WEAK BULL | +1.7% | -1.9% | -5.2% | +14.3% | -6.4% | ● | ● | ● |
| XLF | Financials | +1 |
+0.8 |
18.3% | HALF POSITION | 🔵 WEAK BULL | +3.6% | +3.9% | -7.7% | +18.7% | -8.5% | ● | ● | ● |
| XLC | Communication Svcs | -1 |
-0.8 |
19.5% | NO POSITION | 🟡 WEAK BEAR | +2.3% | -2.0% | -2.4% | +34.3% | -4.5% | ● | ● | ● |
| Asset | Name | Raw Score | VAMS | Vol% | Position | Signal | 1W% | 1M% | 3M% | 12M% | vs 52W High | 20D | 50D | 200D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFA | Developed Markets | +7 |
+3.7 |
28.4% | MAX POSITION | 🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +4.0% | +3.0% | +4.1% | +44.7% | -3.5% | ● | ● | ● |
| VGK | Europe | +7 |
+3.7 |
28.1% | MAX POSITION | 🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +4.2% | +3.1% | +2.3% | +42.7% | -3.7% | ● | ● | ● |
| EWJ | Japan | +7 |
+3.2 |
33.1% | MAX POSITION | 🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +3.4% | +2.9% | +6.5% | +49.6% | -6.1% | ● | ● | ● |
| EEM | Emerging Markets | +7 |
+2.8 |
37.4% | MAX POSITION | 🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +6.5% | +2.5% | +6.0% | +60.3% | -4.8% | ● | ● | ● |
| EWZ | Brazil | +7 |
+2.7 |
38.4% | HALF POSITION | 🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +5.7% | +7.8% | +23.3% | +82.3% | 0.0% | ● | ● | ● |
| FXI | China | -3 |
-1.9 |
23.6% | NO POSITION | 🔴 BEAR | +2.0% | -0.3% | -7.9% | +25.7% | -12.1% | ● | ● | ● |
| INDA | India | -5 |
-2.6 |
28.6% | AVOID / SHORT | 🔴 BEAR | +5.2% | -0.4% | -8.7% | -0.2% | -12.2% | ● | ● | ● |
| Asset | Name | Raw Score | VAMS | Vol% | Position | Signal | 1W% | 1M% | 3M% | 12M% | vs 52W High | 20D | 50D | 200D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHY | 1-3Y Treasury | +7 |
+7.0 |
2.1% | NO POSITION | 🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.4% | +3.5% | -0.3% | ● | ● | ● |
| HYG | High Yield Corp | +7 |
+7.0 |
7.7% | MAX POSITION | 🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +0.9% | +1.0% | +0.7% | +12.3% | 0.0% | ● | ● | ● |
| LQD | Inv Grade Corp | +7 |
+7.0 |
8.5% | MAX POSITION | 🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +0.3% | +0.7% | +0.4% | +8.8% | -1.2% | ● | ● | ● |
| EMB | EM Bonds | +7 |
+7.0 |
11.7% | HALF POSITION | 🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +1.6% | +0.3% | +0.8% | +16.2% | -1.4% | ● | ● | ● |
| IEF | 7-10Y Treasury | +3 |
+6.0 |
6.6% | NO POSITION | 🟢 BULL | +0.2% | -0.3% | +0.1% | +4.4% | -2.0% | ● | ● | ● |
| TLT | 20Y Treasury | +1 |
+1.3 |
11.6% | HALF POSITION | 🔵 WEAK BULL | -0.1% | -0.1% | +0.4% | +2.6% | -3.8% | ● | ● | ● |
| Asset | Name | Raw Score | VAMS | Vol% | Position | Signal | 1W% | 1M% | 3M% | 12M% | vs 52W High | 20D | 50D | 200D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBA | Agriculture | +5 |
+7.0 |
9.1% | HALF POSITION | 🟢 BULL | -1.1% | +0.6% | +3.3% | +10.2% | -1.6% | ● | ● | ● |
| DBC | Broad Commodities | +5 |
+2.7 |
28.0% | MAX POSITION | 🟢 BULL | -2.1% | +2.1% | +25.5% | +47.2% | -2.6% | ● | ● | ● |
| USO | Crude Oil | +7 |
+1.3 |
83.7% | HALF POSITION | 🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | -8.0% | +17.5% | +80.0% | +100.4% | -8.6% | ● | ● | ● |
| GLD | Gold | +3 |
+1.2 |
37.0% | HALF POSITION | 🟢 BULL | +2.0% | -8.1% | +6.4% | +59.1% | -11.7% | ● | ● | ● |
| GDX | Gold Miners | +3 |
+0.7 |
61.1% | HALF POSITION | 🟢 BULL | +4.0% | -3.0% | +7.4% | +138.7% | -15.1% | ● | ● | ● |
| CPER | Copper | +1 |
+0.4 |
34.0% | HALF POSITION | 🔵 WEAK BULL | +2.4% | -2.5% | -1.3% | +36.9% | -9.0% | ● | ● | ● |
| SLV | Silver | +1 |
+0.3 |
58.6% | HALF POSITION | 🔵 WEAK BULL | +4.0% | -12.2% | -1.9% | +152.0% | -35.2% | ● | ● | ● |
| WEAT | Wheat | -1 |
-0.6 |
24.7% | NO POSITION | 🟡 WEAK BEAR | -3.8% | -3.7% | +8.1% | -5.7% | -9.1% | ● | ● | ● |
| Asset | Name | Raw Score | VAMS | Vol% | Position | Signal | 1W% | 1M% | 3M% | 12M% | vs 52W High | 20D | 50D | 200D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FXE | Euro | +7 |
+7.0 |
8.2% | MAX POSITION | 🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +1.5% | +1.2% | +0.6% | +7.6% | -2.6% | ● | ● | ● |
| CEW | EM Currencies | +7 |
+7.0 |
9.8% | MAX POSITION | 🟢🟢 STRONG BULL | +1.7% | +1.2% | +2.0% | +16.4% | -1.0% | ● | ● | ● |
| FXA | Australian Dollar | +5 |
+6.2 |
12.1% | MAX POSITION | 🟢 BULL | +2.6% | -0.9% | +6.0% | +20.0% | -0.9% | ● | ● | ● |
| UUP | USD Index | +3 |
+5.6 |
8.0% | NO POSITION | 🟢 BULL | -1.4% | -0.2% | +0.8% | +0.6% | -1.8% | ● | ● | ● |
| FXY | Japanese Yen | -5 |
-7.0 |
8.3% | AVOID / SHORT | 🔴 BEAR | +0.3% | -0.1% | -1.4% | -8.5% | -11.9% | ● | ● | ● |
| Asset | Name | Raw Score | VAMS | Vol% | Position | Signal | 1W% | 1M% | 3M% | 12M% | vs 52W High | 20D | 50D | 200D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIXY | VIX Short-Term | -5 |
-0.8 |
90.1% | NO POSITION | 🔴 BEAR | -12.3% | -5.7% | +16.0% | -64.5% | -64.5% | ● | ● | ● |
How current momentum aligns with the GOLDILOCKS regime playbook. Growth strong, inflation low — full risk-on. Equities, credit, and EM favoured.
| Factor | Regime Says | Momentum Confirms | Aligned? |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Bias | Full risk-on — growth strong, inflation low | SPY (+5), QQQ (+5), IWM (+7), DIA (+5) | ✅ |
| Beta | Max beta — go offensive | QQQ (+5), IWM (+7), XLK (+3), XLC (-1) | ✅ |
| Geography | Global risk-on — US leads, EM participates | SPY (+5), EEM (+7), EFA (+7), VGK (+7), EWJ (+7) | ✅ |
| Fixed Income | Underweight bonds — equities preferred | HYG (+7), LQD (+7) | ✅ |
| Commodities | Neutral — strong growth but no inflation spike | CPER (+1), DBC (+5) | ✅ |
| Currencies | Risk currencies outperform USD | FXA (+5), CEW (+7), FXE (+7) | ✅ |