Regime Gauge
DEFLATION
INFLATION
TRANSITION
REFLATION
GOLDILOCKS
0% Bearish
50% Mixed
100% Bullish
Signal Matrix
| Variable |
Signal |
Price |
vs 20DMA |
5D Change |
Group |
| Equities |
| S&P 500 (ES) |
✓ |
6,824.66 |
+3.48% |
▲ Improving |
Equities |
| Nasdaq 100 (NQ) |
✓ |
25,082.09 |
+3.81% |
▲ Improving |
Equities |
| Russell 2000 (RTY) |
✓ |
2,636.31 |
+5.08% |
— Unchanged |
Equities |
| Nikkei 225 |
✓ |
56,308.42 |
+5.32% |
— Unchanged |
Equities |
| Shanghai Composite |
✓ |
3,995.00 |
+0.63% |
▲ Improving |
Equities |
| Euro Stoxx 50 |
✓ |
5,913.37 |
+4.28% |
▲ Improving |
Equities |
| Volatility |
| VIX |
✓ |
19.49 |
+23.26% |
— Unchanged |
Volatility |
| VXN (Nasdaq Vol) |
✓ |
23.50 |
+16.51% |
— Unchanged |
Volatility |
| MOVE Proxy (TYX) |
✓ |
4.8970 |
+0.11% |
▲ Improving |
Volatility |
| Commodities |
| Crude Oil (WTI) |
✗ |
98.52 |
-0.19% |
▼ Deteriorating |
Commodities |
| Gold (XAU) |
✓ |
4,783.20 |
+1.88% |
▲ Improving |
Commodities |
| Silver (XAG) |
✓ |
75.36 |
+1.87% |
▲ Improving |
Commodities |
| Copper |
✓ |
5.7500 |
+3.07% |
— Unchanged |
Commodities |
| Wheat |
✗ |
575.25 |
-3.79% |
— Unchanged |
Commodities |
| CRB Broad Commodities |
✗ |
28.71 |
-0.27% |
▼ Deteriorating |
Commodities |
| Currencies |
| DXY (USD Index) |
✓ |
98.92 |
+0.80% |
▲ Improving |
Currencies |
| AUD/USD |
✓ |
0.7073 |
+1.35% |
▲ Improving |
Currencies |
| EUR/USD |
✓ |
1.1690 |
+1.15% |
▲ Improving |
Currencies |
| GBP/USD |
✓ |
1.3422 |
+0.80% |
▲ Improving |
Currencies |
| USD/JPY |
✗ |
159.20 |
-0.01% |
— Unchanged |
Currencies |
| USD/CNY |
✓ |
6.8287 |
+0.87% |
— Unchanged |
Currencies |
| USD/CHF |
✗ |
0.7912 |
-0.19% |
▼ Deteriorating |
Currencies |
| Fixed Income |
| 10Y Treasury Yield |
✗ |
4.2930 |
-0.59% |
▼ Deteriorating |
Fixed Income |
| 30Y Treasury Yield |
✗ |
4.8970 |
-0.11% |
▼ Deteriorating |
Fixed Income |
| 5Y Treasury Yield |
✗ |
3.9150 |
-0.73% |
▼ Deteriorating |
Fixed Income |
| 3M T-Bill Yield |
✓ |
3.5880 |
+0.57% |
▲ Improving |
Fixed Income |
| High Yield Bond ETF |
✓ |
80.28 |
+1.41% |
— Unchanged |
Fixed Income |
| Investment Grade ETF |
✓ |
109.49 |
+1.03% |
— Unchanged |
Fixed Income |
| 20Y Treasury ETF |
✓ |
86.70 |
+0.34% |
▲ Improving |
Fixed Income |
| Yield Curve |
| 10Y-2Y Spread |
✗ |
0.7050 |
-0.67% |
▼ Deteriorating |
Yield Curve |
| 10Y-3M Spread |
✓ |
0.7050 |
+0.00% |
— Unchanged |
Yield Curve |
| Risk Indicators |
| SPX/Gold Ratio |
✓ |
15.58 |
+1.64% |
▲ Improving |
Risk Indicators |
| HYG/LQD Ratio |
✓ |
0.7332 |
+0.38% |
— Unchanged |
Risk Indicators |
| EEM/SPY Ratio |
✓ |
0.0887 |
+1.83% |
— Unchanged |
Risk Indicators |
| XLY/XLP Ratio |
✓ |
1.3510 |
+1.40% |
— Unchanged |
Risk Indicators |
| VIX Abs Level (<20) |
✓ |
19.49 |
+0.00% |
▲ Improving |
Risk Indicators |
30-Day Regime History
Goldilocks
Reflation
Transition
Inflation
Deflation
Regime Playbook: GOLDILOCKS
Overweight
US EquitiesGrowth StocksHigh Yield CreditEM EquitiesSmall Caps
Underweight
GoldTreasuriesCashUtilitiesDefensive Sectors
Key Watches
VIX for complacencyYield curveCredit spreadsDXY trend
→
See Pulse for which specific assets within this regime have the strongest momentum signals.