Asia Macro Checklist
Eight Asia regimes, four-leg analytical framework, weekly tactical regime read. Independent research from @ADZO.
Global context
The macro backdrop every Asia regime is filtered through.
Global transmission map
How each global driver flows into specific regime calls. Every regime card references at least one of these in its dissenting signals or signals to flip.
| Global driver | Affects | Direction |
|---|---|---|
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Regime change log
How rarely regimes actually flip. Append-only. Discipline tool, not a marketing element.
Regimes
Each card shows the four-leg framework, leg status, conviction band, dissenting signals, and the data points that would flip the call. Cells marked [HARD SOURCE] identify the metrics that require Bloomberg / FactSet / institutional access to source — the framework refuses to fake them.
Regime → Instrument expression
Generic US-listed ETF proxies per regime. Consolidated cross-reference for the eight regimes above.
| Regime | Instrument expression | Triggers |
|---|---|---|
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Methodology
The four-leg framework
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Label states
Each regime is classified into exactly one of four states.
Conviction bands
Conviction reflects confidence in the regime call, separate from the label itself.
Label derivation rules
The label and conviction band are derivable, not assigned by author judgement. Read the leg-status row on each card, count ✓/◐/✗ across the four legs, and the table below maps the count to the label.
| Pattern | Label | Conviction | Note |
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Fallback derivation rule
The plumbing edge
Plumbing drivers are tagged plumbing on the regime cards. They are not consensus dashboard inputs — they are mechanically deterministic of price (not narrative), and they typically lead consensus by 1–4 weeks.
Examples in v4: PBOC USD/CNY fix vs Reuters analyst estimate (China); Japanese life-insurer FX-hedge ratio at a 13-year low (Japan); BOJ JGB outright purchase operations cadence (Asia bonds); BNM SRR + foreign holdings of MGS concentration (Malaysia); KRW NDF 1m implied yield carry (Korea); TWD life-insurer FX-hedge cost proxy (Taiwan); RBI forward book size (India); ASEAN local-currency carry basket (ASEAN ex-MY).
Several plumbing drivers are tagged [HARD SOURCE] — the data exists but requires institutional access (Bloomberg Terminal, NDF basis feeds, RBI Bulletin XLS retrieval). Public-web substitutes are noted where they exist.
Why this matters: a competent generic Asia macro dashboard tracks PMI, FX, and indices. It does not track these. That gap is the ADZO edge claim.
Framework retrospective
The v4 four-leg framework's classifications across six named inflection points (China Q4 2022 reopen, BOJ YCC abandonment, Taiwan AI breakout Q1 2024, India FII flip Q4 2024, MYR strength 2025, Japan reflation 2024) are documented at /tools/asia-checklist-backtest.html. The current retrospective is qualitative; a 480-classification monthly quant backtest is deferred to when paid-data-feed access (Bloomberg / FactSet / EPFR) is available.
Operational discipline pages (v4.2)
The framework's operational scaffolding lives on three companion pages:
- Cadence Protocol — named catalysts, SLAs, refresh-discipline rules, archive policy
- Track Record — benchmark mapping, label→prediction methodology, +30/90/180d return columns
- Peer Review — three-tier sourcing plan, intake template, critique log
Driver pre-registration
Conviction-override logic
Proxy-driven leg overrides
On the absence of BREAKING calls
Framework kill-switch
Cadence + freshness
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Framework edge claim
What this framework systematically incorporates that consensus Asia macro dashboards do not.
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