Bitcoin's Cycle Bottom: Where the Support Levels Actually Are
History says this Bitcoin crash should end around October to December. But here is the problem: Bitcoin has only fallen 48% so far. In every past crash, it fell much further than that.
You are really asking two questions
When people ask "how low will Bitcoin go?", they are actually asking two different things at the same time.
When does the falling stop? And how cheap does Bitcoin get before it does?
These are not the same question, and they do not have equally reliable answers. History answers the first one quite well. The second one is where almost every prediction you read online goes wrong.
Here is where things stand today. Bitcoin reached its highest price ever — $126,198 — on 6 October 2025. Today it trades near $65,000. That means it has lost roughly 48% of its value. Anyone who bought at the very top is sitting on about half their money. It has been 294 days since that peak.
There have already been two ugly moments on the way down. On 5–6 February 2026, Bitcoin dropped 15% in a single day to around $60,000 — its worst level since October 2024. Then in early July it touched $57,717.
In late June, something happened that experienced traders watch closely. Bitcoin ended a week below its 200-week moving average.
What is that? It is simply the average price of Bitcoin over the last four years. Think of it as the long-term floor. It matters because in 2015, 2018 and 2022, the price stopped falling almost exactly at this line. That line currently sits around $62,000–$63,000 — and Bitcoin has now slipped underneath it for the first time in four years.
Falling below that line does not mean the bottom has arrived. But historically it means the market has entered the stage where the bottom gets made.
The timing is the easy part
Bitcoin's crashes have been surprisingly punctual. In every completed cycle, the lowest price came 12 to 14 months after the peak. It also came roughly 2.5 years after each halving — the event, about every four years, where the reward for producing new Bitcoin is cut in half, slowing down the supply of new coins.
| Crash | Peak | Lowest point | Time taken | Total fall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013–15 | Nov 2013 · ~$1,163 | Jan 2015 · ~$152 | ~14 months | −86% |
| 2017–18 | Dec 2017 · ~$19,800 | Dec 2018 · ~$3,148 | ~12 months | −84% |
| 2021–22 | Nov 2021 · $69,000 | Nov 2022 · ~$15,479 | ~12 months | −78% |
| 2025–26 | Oct 2025 · $126,198 | — | → Oct–Dec 2026 | −48% so far |
Both ways of counting give the same answer. October 2025 plus 12 to 14 months lands in October–December 2026. The April 2024 halving plus 2.5 years lands in October 2026.
That is why analysts using completely different methods keep arriving at the same window. Benjamin Cowen expects October 2026, pointing out that US midterm election years produced lows in the final quarter in 2014, 2018 and 2022. Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, has said the pattern implies a bottom in September or October. The analytics firms CryptoQuant and Glassnode, and the analyst known as PlanB, have all landed on the same quarter.
On timing, most people agree: September to December 2026, with October mentioned most often. This is the part of the theory with the strongest track record.
The depth is the hard part
Now put all four crashes on one chart. Each line starts at that cycle's peak and shows how far below it the price fell, day by day. Lining them up this way lets you compare crashes that happened at completely different price levels — $1,163 in 2013 and $126,198 in 2025 become directly comparable.
Look at where the thick red line sits compared to the dotted ones. At day 294 — exactly where we are today — the three earlier crashes had already fallen between 64% and 68%.
This one has fallen 48%.
Put it another way. For Bitcoin to be as beaten up today as it was at the same stage of the last three crashes, it would need to be trading at $40,000 to $45,000. It is at $65,000.
That gap is the whole argument in one number. Either the big institutions buying Bitcoin have genuinely made these crashes gentler — or this one still has further to fall.
Now look at the last column of the table again: −86%, −84%, −78%. Each crash has been a little less severe than the one before. That makes sense — Bitcoin has grown bigger and more people are willing to buy it when it falls.
If that pattern keeps going, the next crash should land near −70%. From a peak of $126,198, that works out to roughly $38,000. That is almost exactly what the investment firm NYDIG modelled — a low near $38,000–$39,000 by October, if this crash turns out as deep as 2014, 2018 and 2022.
Meanwhile the target you hear repeated everywhere — $50,000 to $55,000 — only works out to a fall of 57% to 60%. That is a much gentler crash than the pattern suggests.
So here is the part worth understanding. When someone tells you "$50,000 is the bottom, because Bitcoin follows a predictable cycle," they are not really following the cycle. The cycle points lower. They are betting that money from ETFs makes this crash far milder than every one before it. They might be right. But that is a guess about the future, not a lesson from the past — and it is worth knowing which of the two you are buying.
Three price levels worth watching
"Support" is just a price level where buyers have historically stepped in and stopped the fall. Most of the levels quoted online are guesswork. These three have real reasoning behind them.
The current battleground. It is held up by the four-year average price of $62,000–$63,000 and by July's low of $57,717. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer expected $65,000–$75,000 to hold this year — Bitcoin is already below that.
Three separate things point here: the average price all holders paid (about $53,000), the average price paid by large holders (about $54,300), and Citigroup's worst case of $53,000. Standard Chartered warned of a dip to $50,000 before any recovery.
Cowen tracks a deeper measure that sits near $37,700 — and every previous crash broke below it. NYDIG's scenario is $38,000–$39,000. The very largest holders paid around $49,000 on average.
One of these deserves far more attention than the other two.
Bitcoin's realized price is currently around $53,000.
What is that? It is the average price that everybody who owns Bitcoin actually paid for it. If the market price falls below this number, it means the typical holder is now losing money on their coins.
Here is why it matters so much. Before every single major bottom in Bitcoin's history — 2011, 2015, 2018–19, the March 2020 crash, and 2022 — the price dipped below this line first. It is the moment where the average holder is underwater and the weakest hands finally give up.
It has not happened this time.
That is the strongest single argument that the bottom has not arrived yet. It is also the cleanest thing to watch. If Bitcoin dips below $53,000 and then bounces, the historical pattern has completed. If it never gets there at all, then this cycle really was different.
What the blockchain data says right now
Bitcoin has one unusual advantage over other markets. Because every transaction is recorded publicly, you can see inside it — who is buying, who is selling, what they paid, and how long they have held. Analysts call this "on-chain" data. With shares or property, you simply cannot see this.
The honest answer is that it currently points both ways. Anyone telling you it is one-sided is selling something. Here is the scorecard.
Signs the bottom has NOT arrived
- Bitcoin has never dropped below the $53,000 average holder price this cycle — it did before every previous bottom
- The measure of how stretched prices are is bouncing around, not fully resetting the way it does at real bottoms
- Bitcoin never reached the panic-selling zone seen at past lows, which suggests one final flush is still owed
- Analyst Rekt Capital expects the current bounce to fail
- Glassnode says the market "should not yet be considered to have established a durable low"
Signs a bottom is forming
- Price has fallen close to the average price all holders paid — historically a cheap zone
- The share of coins currently sitting at a profit has dropped into the range where past bottoms formed
- Short-term traders have gone quiet, while the number of coins untouched for over a year keeps rising — long-term holders are not selling
- Miners are in deep, prolonged pain (see below)
- Stablecoins — dollars parked on crypto exchanges ready to buy — are at record highs
That miner point deserves explaining. Miners are the companies running the computers that process Bitcoin transactions and earn new coins for doing it. When the price falls far enough, mining stops covering the electricity bill and they switch machines off. About 15% of that computing power has gone offline since October — one of the longest stretches of miner pain on record.
This usually happens near a bottom. But it marks the neighbourhood, not the day. In both 2018 and 2022, the same signal appeared months before the actual low.
The thing the four-year theory ignores
The cycle theory has one large blind spot. It only looks at Bitcoin, and ignores everything happening in the wider economy.
Grayscale makes the strongest version of this criticism, and it deserves a fair hearing. Every past Bitcoin crash happened at the same time as a slowing economy and rising interest rates. On that view, the halving did not cause those crashes. The economy did.
If that is right, the US Federal Reserve matters more than the calendar — and the Fed is not helping. It meets on 29 July, and economists expect it to hold interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth meeting in a row. What has changed is the direction. Rising energy prices, made worse by shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, have pushed inflation back up. Some forecasters now think the Fed's next move could be a rate rise rather than a cut.
That is the opposite of the conditions every previous Bitcoin recovery enjoyed. The reason is simple: Bitcoin pays no interest and no dividend. When safe assets like bonds start paying you more, holding something that pays you nothing becomes more expensive by comparison. Money moves to where it gets paid.
This is the same force we covered in the gold breakdown during the Hormuz crisis — gold fell hard for exactly this reason, in the middle of a war that should have sent it soaring. Being scarce does not protect an asset from it. Bitcoin is not exempt either.
The money flows tell the same story. ETFs are funds that let ordinary investors own Bitcoin through a normal brokerage account, without handling the coins themselves. In 2025 they were the single biggest source of new buying. In 2026 they have run in reverse: about $4.84 billion has flowed out, including a record $3.4 billion in one week in early June. Early July brought $510 million back over three days, ending a ten-day losing run — a pause, not a turnaround.
Meanwhile Strategy — the company famous for buying more Bitcoin than anyone else — has started selling. It has sold roughly $218 million this year, its first sales since December 2022, after the value of its Bitcoin fell below what the company owes.
The two biggest buyers of the last cycle have both, at minimum, stopped buying.
What would prove this wrong
Cowen gives a clean number to write down: a weekly close above roughly $86,500 — the average price over the past year. Until Bitcoin closes a week above that and holds, this summer bounce is a normal pause in a downtrend, not the start of a new bull market.
The big bank forecasts tell their own story — but not in the way most people read them.
| Firm | Forecast for end-2026 | How it changed this year |
|---|---|---|
| NYDIG (scenario, not forecast) | $38,000–$39,000 bottom | Downside case |
| Citigroup | $82,000 (bear $53,000) | Cut twice, from $143,000 |
| Standard Chartered | $100,000 | Cut from $150,000 |
| Fundstrat (Sean Farrell) | ~$115,000 | Called H1 correctly |
| Bernstein | $150,000 | Cut from $200,000 |
| JPMorgan | $150,000–$170,000 | Floor near $94,000 |
| Tom Lee (Fundstrat) | $200,000–$250,000 | Unchanged |
Do not read the middle column. Read the one on the right.
Not one major bank has raised its Bitcoin forecast in 2026. Every single change has been downward. When everybody is moving the same direction, that direction tells you more than the numbers themselves do.
Bottom Line
On timing, the four-year pattern has a genuinely good record, and it points to October–December 2026. On price, be careful. The $50,000–$55,000 level everyone quotes is not the cycle repeating — it is a bet that ETF money makes this crash half as deep as every previous one. If the pattern simply continues as it has, the answer is closer to $38,000. Watch one number above all others: $53,000, the average price all holders paid. Bitcoin has dropped below it before every bottom in its history. It has not done so yet.
When will Bitcoin stop falling in 2026?
The four-year pattern points to October–December 2026. In every past cycle, Bitcoin reached its lowest price 12 to 14 months after the peak, and about 2.5 years after each halving. Counting from the October 2025 peak and from the April 2024 halving gives the same answer. Benjamin Cowen, Grayscale, CryptoQuant, Glassnode and PlanB have all arrived at the final quarter of 2026, with October mentioned most often.
What is the main support level to watch?
The most quoted zone is $50,000 to $55,000. It is built around the average price all Bitcoin holders actually paid, which is roughly $53,000. Before every major bottom — 2011, 2015, 2018–19, March 2020 and 2022 — the price dipped below that line first. As of late July 2026 it has not. The nearer level is the four-year average price of $62,000–$63,000, which Bitcoin fell below in late June for the first time in four years.
How far could Bitcoin fall?
Past crashes fell 86%, 84% and 78% from their peaks — each one slightly less severe than the last. Continuing that trend gives roughly 70%, which from the $126,198 peak works out to about $38,000. That matches NYDIG's scenario. The popular $50,000–$55,000 target only implies a 57% to 60% fall, which is far gentler than the trend suggests. Nobody knows which will happen — but it is worth knowing that the common target assumes the pattern breaks.
How can Malaysian investors get exposure to Bitcoin?
Malaysians can access Bitcoin through the six digital asset exchanges registered with the Securities Commission Malaysia as Recognised Market Operators (RMO-DAX): HATA Digital, Luno Malaysia, MX Global, SINEGY DAX, Kinetic DAX and Torum International. SC rules require an independent trustee to safeguard client assets, and the SC has approved a defined list of tradeable digital assets. Luno expanded to 51 assets in March 2026 and is currently the only local platform offering both conventional and Shariah-compliant options. Note that Bitcoin sits outside the unit trust framework — it is not capital-protected, carries no distribution, and should be sized accordingly within a broader plan.
This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, including the possible loss of principal. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and is not capital-protected. Consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions. Adezeno is a licensed unit trust consultant with Eastspring Investments Berhad.