Historical Supercycles
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Anatomy of a Supercycle: US Steel, 1867–1913
The first modern commodity supercycle played out over four decades. US steel production exploded from near zero to 31 million tons — while prices collapsed from $166 to $24 per ton as Bessemer innovation scaled. Click a phase to see the real history.
Steel production (million tons)
Steel rail price ($/ton)
Supercycle II: Global Oil, 1930–1955
Rearmament and post-war reconstruction transformed oil from a commodity into the lifeblood of the modern economy. World production surged from 5.9M to 16.1M barrels per day — powered by military demand, the Marshall Plan and the dawn of the automobile age. Click a phase to explore.
World oil production (M barrels/day)
US crude oil price ($/barrel)
Supercycle III: The Great Inflation, 1968–1982
The collapse of Bretton Woods, two OPEC oil shocks and runaway monetary expansion drove commodities into a decade-long mania. Gold surged from $35 to $850. Oil quadrupled twice. This is the supercycle that changed central banking forever. Click a phase to explore.
Gold price ($/oz)
Oil price ($/barrel)
Supercycle IV: The China Boom, 2000–2011
The largest urbanisation in human history — 1.3 billion people industrialising in two decades — drove copper from $0.72 to $4.65/lb and oil from $27 to $147/barrel. Then the financial crisis nearly destroyed the global banking system. Click a phase to explore.
Copper ($/lb)
Oil — WTI ($/barrel)
Supercycle V: The AI & Scarcity Cycle, 2020–Present
Gold has surged from $1,770 to over $5,000. Silver has tripled. Precious metals are leading — but copper, uranium and rare earths are following as AI infrastructure, geopolitical fragmentation and a decade of underinvestment converge. We are here. Click a phase to explore.
Gold ($/oz)
Silver ($/oz)
Five Pillars of the 2026 Thesis
Key Commodities in Focus